When the
Omicron variant was discovered, many countries promptly implemented travel
restrictions and other public health precautions, such as mandatory mask-wearing. Is this, however, the right course of action given the absence of
data?
These
measures come at a price, and some have contended that they are excessive. New
precautions, according to critics of the travel ban, will not materially slow
the spread of the variation. Indeed, authorities from the World Health
Organization (WHO) have recommended countries not to adopt travel restrictions
quickly, instead opting for a risk-based, science-based strategy.
Others
argue that the variant's risks should not be exaggerated, considering the few
reports of minor illness so far. Throughout the pandemic, officials have been
grappling with how to deal with uncertainty. Another example of this is the
birth of the Omicron variation.
One issue
with the WHO's proposal to use a completely scientific approach to policymaking
in this area is that our current scientific understanding is limited. The
impact of the variant on infections and hospitalizations, as well as the
efficacy of current immunizations, testing, and treatments, is still unknown.
Although
trials to investigate these allegations are underway, obtaining evidence will
take time. At the moment, it's difficult to put a specific number on the
dangers we face.
Policymakers
are in a pickle. If they opt to wait for further data before making a truly
evidence-based choice, any imposed measures may be too late to have a major
advantage.
If they
choose to impose restrictions now, their policies have more chance of
mitigating the harm of a variant. But, such an approach may be accused of
lacking a solid evidence base, and we may later find that the restrictive
policies were unnecessary if the variant is not as bad as first feared.
Not a scientific issue
The
question of how we should manage uncertainty is not a scientific issue; it is
an ethical issue of how we should balance different “moral costs.” Imposing
public health restrictions early has tangible costs on individual liberty and
well-being. Travel bans have economic implications and may damage international
solidarity. These costs are all the more galling if data later shows that they
were not truly necessary. Yet these restrictions could be scaled back once the
evidence suggests that it is safe to do so.
In
contrast, delaying restrictions could have even more significant costs. If a
more transmissible variant is allowed to go unchecked, this will lead to a
significant spike in infections. In turn, it would lead to more people
suffering severe outcomes from Covid -- the extent depending on whether current
vaccines have reduced protection against Omicron.
To protect
healthcare systems from such a wave of seriously ill people, it may become
necessary to impose even more restrictive and far-ranging policies that go
beyond mask-wearing and travel restrictions. It may also be necessary to impose
them for a longer period. The costs of such policies to liberty and well-being
may be far higher than those currently in place, and they may have other social
harms, for instance, if they involve interruptions to education.
We are
also now far enough into the pandemic to have made mistakes that we ought to
learn from. If we are interested in safeguarding individual liberty in the long
term, saving lives, and preserving trust in our policymaking institutions, then
it is better to act now.
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Publish: 10:08 PM, 24 Mar, 2024
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Publish: 10:06 PM, 24 Mar, 2024
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