Turkish inflation rose to a fresh 24-year high of 79.6 percent in July, data showed on Wednesday as the lira’s continued weakness and global energy and commodity costs pushed prices higher, though the price rises came out below forecasts.
Inflation began to surge last autumn, when the lira slumped after the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14 percent in an easing cycle sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 2.37 percent in July, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) said, below a Reuters news agency poll forecast of 2.9 percent. Annually, consumer price inflation was forecast to be 80.5 percent.
Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said annual inflation may be approaching a peak, with energy inflation falling sharply and food inflation appearing close to topping out.
“Even if inflation is close to a peak, it will remain close to its current very high rates for several more months,” Tuvey said in a note.
“Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira remain a key risk,” he said.
The biggest annual rise in consumer prices was in the transportation sector, up 119.11 percent, while food and non-alcoholic drinks prices climbed 94.65 percent.
Inflation this year has been fuelled further by the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the lira’s continued decline. The currency weakened 44 percent against the United States dollar last year, and is down another 27 percent this year.
The lira was trading flat after the data at 17.9560 against the dollar. It touched a record low of 18.4 in December.
Annual inflation is now at the highest level since September 1998, when it reached 80.4 percent and Turkey was battling to end a decade of chronically high inflation.
Last week’s Reuters news poll showed annual inflation was seen declining to some 70 percent by end-2022, easing from current levels as base effects from last year’s price surge take effect.
The domestic producer price index climbed 5.17 percent month-on-month in July for an annual rise of 144.61 percent.
The government has said inflation will fall as a result of its economic programme, which prioritises low rates to boost production and exports and aims to achieve a current account surplus.
Erdogan has said that he expects inflation to come down to “appropriate” levels by February-March next year, while the central bank raised its end-2022 forecast to 60.4 percent last Thursday from 42.8 percent previously.
The bank’s inflation report showed the estimated range of inflation reaching nearly 90 percent this autumn before easing.
Opposition lawmakers and economists have questioned the reliability of the TUIK figures, claims TUIK has dismissed. Polls show Turks believe inflation is far higher than official data.
In a compelling letter addressed to U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, American citizen Dr. Richard R. Love has made an urgent appeal for the United States to adopt a neutral stance regarding recent events in Bangladeshi politics. Despite his American citizenship, Dr. Love's heartfelt letter emphasizes the need for truth and impartiality in addressing the complex political landscape of Bangladesh.
Dr. Love, who has been actively involved in Bangladesh since 2007, initially engaged in breast cancer research projects before shifting his focus towards establishing a new medical center in the remote village of Rampal. His work there centers on primary care and addressing noncommunicable diseases in a region grappling with extreme poverty and climate change challenges.
The backdrop of Dr. Love's plea to Senator Baldwin is marred by personal experiences witnessing the political turmoil in Bangladesh. He recalls chilling incidents, such as the 2009 murders of the Director General of the Border Guards Bangladesh and 55 of his associates, as well as encounters with violence, including a Bangladesh National Party (BNP) mob attack on police officers.
Dr. Love's letter underscores the deep-rooted political struggles, war crime trials, and street violence in Bangladesh, which he argues are partly rooted in the nation's tumultuous founding liberation. He points out that the United States played a role in this history, as documented in Gary Bass' book "The Blood Telegram," which details American foreign policy actions during the West Pakistan-East Pakistan war that led to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
The crux of Dr. Love's letter revolves around two key issues. First, he criticizes a recent New York Times article titled "Quietly crushing a democracy: Millions on trial in Bangladesh," describing it as biased and one-sided. He argues that it fails to consider the historical context and the violence-promoting tendencies of the BNP, which has been a home for anti-democratic voices. Dr. Love believes it is inexcusable to overlook BNP corruption and violence against the Awami League, including assassination attempts on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Secondly, Dr. Love addresses the international campaign by Muhammad Yunus, protesting "harassment" on tax evasion charges. He believes that the charges against Yunus are substantial and advocates for U.S. neutrality in this matter.
In his letter, Dr. Love calls for a non-involvement approach and urges the U.S. to adopt a neutral stance on both issues. He expresses a desire to hear promptly from Senator Baldwin regarding the specific actions taken to share these perspectives with President Biden and Secretary Blinken.
Dr. Love's letter serves as a reminder that, despite being an American citizen, he remains deeply engaged and concerned about the truth and neutrality in the ongoing political dynamics of Bangladesh. His plea underscores the importance of impartiality in addressing complex international issues.
On 16th of August (Wednesday) at 3 PM, the Observe Research Foundation (ORF) is organizing a discussion session titled ' Perceptions of Bangladesh in the US and the Jamaat-e-Islami problem'.
This event will delve into various questions that have arisen recently regarding the revival of some aspects of the Islamic movement in Bangladesh and the state of Dhaka's relationship with the United States, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 elections. The entire assembly will be moderated by Kabir Taneja, an associate of ORF.
Bangladesh holds significant importance in South Asian geopolitics, economics, and security. This event, conducted in collaboration with Mr. Clifford Smith, will shed light on regional and international perspectives of Bangladesh's politics and how these developments are perceived by American observers.
The speakers for the event will be Clifford Smith (Director of Washington Project, Middle East Forum, United States) and Kabir Taneja (Associate, ORF).
China has rejected a proposal from the United States for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to meet with his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu at the Shangri-La Dialogue Security Forum in Singapore this week, according to a statement from the Pentagon.
The refusal comes at a time of strained relations between the two countries, exacerbated by various incidents, including Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August and the US shooting down a Chinese spy balloon in February.
In its statement, the Pentagon acknowledged that China had declined an invitation for a meeting in early May but affirmed that the US remains committed to seeking open lines of communication with the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon Press Secretary, expressed concern over China's reluctance to engage in meaningful military-to-military discussions but emphasized that it would not deter the US from pursuing improved communication channels.
China's Defense Ministry, on the other hand, stated that it attaches importance to developing US-China military relations but blamed Washington for hindering communication. Spokesperson Tan Kefei placed responsibility for the current difficulties on the US side, claiming that while the US claims to want stronger communication, it disregards China's concerns and creates obstacles that undermine mutual trust between the two militaries.
The Chinese Embassy in the US issued a separate statement questioning the sincerity and significance of the invitation. It pointed to US sanctions imposed on Chinese officials, institutions, and companies, urging the US to lift what it deemed "illegal unilateral sanctions" to create favorable conditions for dialogue. The statement did not specifically mention the sanctions against Li imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 over China's purchase of Russian weapons.
The Wall Street Journal first reported China's rejection of the proposed meeting between the defense chiefs. Defense Secretary Austin had previously stated in an interview with CNN that he had not spoken to his Chinese counterpart in months, while China has consistently rebuffed requests for meetings and phone calls from US officials.
A defense official noted that this was not the first time China had rejected invitations to communicate, citing numerous instances where the Chinese side declined or failed to respond to requests for engagements. However, China's Defense Ministry refuted this characterization, asserting that there has been no interruption in contacts and exchanges between the two militaries.
The strained relations between China and the US continue to present challenges in establishing effective communication and cooperation, with both sides trading blame for the current difficulties.
Bangladesh nationals have been arrested in Gujarat on charges that they
illegally entered the country and were trying to radicalise local youth in
Ahmedabad and collecting money, according to a statement by Gujarat’s
anti-terrorist squad (ATS) on Monday.
The four were part of a local al-Qaeda module trained by their handlers in Bangladesh, the statement issued by deputy inspector general (DIG) Gujarat ATS, Deepan Bhadran said
The four persons were identified by the police as Mohammad Sojib, Munna Khalid Ansari, Azharul Islam Ansari, and Mominul Ansari.
“Based on the received intelligence, four illegal Bangladeshi immigrants involved in recruiting for ‘al-Qaeda’ were arrested,” said Bhadran.
He added that the police first picked Sojib, who earlier lived in Ahmedabad’s Rakhial area, for questioning.
“Sojib revealed that he and three other individuals are associated with al-Qaeda’s network and were receiving instructions from their handler based in Bangladesh, identified as Shariful Islam. Through Islam, these youths came into contact with Shayba, who is reportedly heading al-Qaeda’s operations in Mymensingh district, Bangladesh.”
According to the ATS, the suspects were trying to radicalise people in Gujarat and were also transferring funds to Bangladesh. The ATS did not, however, indicate how much money had been transferred.
“Gujarat ATS received information about four Bangladeshi nationals residing illegally in Ahmedabad’s Odhav and Narol areas, using duplicate IDs. They are associated with al-Qaeda and have been motivating Muslim residents of the city to join the militant organization, as well as collecting funds for al-Qaeda.”
ATS said fake identity documents and literature produced by the terror group’s media wing were seized at the instance of the four suspects.
ATS said the focus of its inquiry was to identify individuals who facilitated their border crossing, ascertain methods to raise funds, identify local contacts, and individuals who may have been influenced by them.