প্রকাশ: 10/01/2022
Emerging economies must prepare for US interest rate hikes,
the International Monetary Fund said, warning that faster than expected Federal
Reserve moves could rattle financial markets and trigger capital outflows and
currency depreciation abroad.
In a blog published Monday, the IMF said it expected robust
US growth to continue, with inflation likely to moderate later in the year. The
global lender is due to release fresh global economic forecasts on Jan. 25.
It said a gradual, well-telegraphed tightening of US
monetary policy would likely have little impact on emerging markets, with
foreign demand offsetting the impact of rising financing costs.
But broad-based US wage inflation or sustained supply
bottlenecks could boost prices more than anticipated and fuel expectations for
more rapid inflation, triggering faster rate hikes by the US central bank.
"Emerging economies should prepare for potential bouts
of economic turbulence," the IMF said, citing the risks posed by
faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes and the resurgent pandemic.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard this week said the Fed
could raise interest rates as soon as March, months earlier than previously
expected, and is now in a "good position" to take even more
aggressive steps against inflation, as needed.
"Faster Fed rate increases could rattle financial
markets and tighten financial conditions globally. These developments could
come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and
currency depreciation in emerging markets," senior IMF officials wrote in
the blog.
It said emerging markets with high public and private debt,
foreign exchange exposures, and lower current-account balances had already seen
larger movements of their currencies relative to the US dollar.
The fund said emerging markets with stronger inflation
pressures or weaker institutions should act swiftly to let currencies
depreciate and raise benchmark interest rates.
It urged central banks to clearly and consistently
communicate their plans to tighten policy, and said countries with high levels
of debt denominated in foreign currencies should look to hedge their exposures
where feasible.
Governments could also announce plans to boost fiscal
resources by gradually increasing tax revenues, implementing pension and subsidy
overhauls, or other measures, it added.
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