প্রকাশ: 20/01/2022
US President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russia
will make a move on Ukraine, saying Russia would pay dearly for a full-scale
invasion but suggesting there could be a lower cost for a "minor
incursion."
Biden's comments at a White House news conference injected
uncertainty into how the West would respond should Russian President Vladimir
Putin order an invasion of Ukraine, prompting the White House later to seek to
clarify what Biden meant.
"My guess is he will move in," Biden said of Putin
at a news conference. "He has to do something."
"Russia will be held accountable if it invades - and it
depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up
having to fight about what to do and what to not do, et cetera," Biden
said. "But if they actually do what they're capable of doing ... it is
going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine."
Russian officials have repeatedly denied planning to invade,
but the Kremlin has massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, a
buildup the West says is preparation for a war to prevent Ukraine from ever
joining the NATO Western security alliance.
Shortly after the nearly two-hour news conference ended, the
White House stressed any Russian military move into Ukraine would elicit a
tough response.
"If any Russian military forces move across the
Ukrainian border, that's a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift,
severe, and united response from the United States and our allies," said
White House press secretary Jen Psaki.
But cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics by Russia
"will be met with "a decisive, reciprocal, and united response,"
she said.
Republicans expressed concern about Biden's remarks.
"Any incursion by the Russian military into Ukraine
should be viewed as a major incursion because it will destabilize Ukraine and
freedom-loving countries in Eastern Europe," said Republican Senator Rob
Portman.
SUMMIT 'A POSSIBILITY'
Biden said a third summit with Putin "is still a
possibility" after the two leaders met twice last year. He said he was
concerned that a Ukraine conflict could have broader implications and
"could get out of hand."
Speaking to reporters at length about the crisis threatening
to engulf his presidency, Biden said he believed Putin would test Western
leaders. The response to any Russian invasion, he said, would depend on the
scale of Moscow's actions and whether US allies squabbled over how to react.
Biden and his team have prepared a broad set of sanctions
and other economic penalties to impose on Russia in the event of an invasion
and the US president said Russian companies could lose the ability to use the
US dollar.
Pressed on what he meant by a "minor incursion,"
Biden said NATO allies are not united on how to respond depending on what
exactly Putin does, saying "there are differences" among them and
that he was trying to make sure that "everybody's on the same page."
"Big nations can't bluff, number one. Number two, the
idea that we would do anything to split NATO ... would be a big mistake. So the
question is, if it's something significantly short of a significant invasion or
... just major military forces coming across. For example, it's one thing to determine
if they continue to use cyber efforts; well, we can respond the same way,"
Biden said.
Biden said Putin had asked him for guarantees on two issues:
that Ukraine would never join NATO and that "strategic" or nuclear
weapons never be stationed on Ukrainian soil.
US officials see limiting NATO expansion as a non-starter,
but Biden noted there was little chance of Ukraine joining the alliance soon
and he suggested there could be a deal under which the West might not station
nuclear forces in Ukraine.
"We can work out something on the second piece,"
depending on Russia's own posture, Biden said.
Visiting Kyiv in a show of support, US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken said Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at "very
short notice" but Washington would pursue diplomacy as long as it could,
even though it was unsure what Moscow really wanted.
The Kremlin said tension around Ukraine was increasing and
it still awaited a written US response to its sweeping demands for security
guarantees from the West, including a halt to further NATO expansion and a
withdrawal of alliance forces from central and eastern European nations that
joined it after 1997.
The pessimistic statements highlighted the US-Russian gulf
ahead of talks between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on
Friday that one Russian foreign policy analyst called "probably the last
stop before the train wreck."
Russia has also moved troops to Belarus for what it calls
joint military exercises, giving it the option of attacking neighboring Ukraine
from the north, east and south.
Eight years ago it seized Crimea and backed separatist
forces who took control of large parts of eastern Ukraine, but it has
consistently denied any intention of invading now.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Western weapons
deliveries to Ukraine, military maneuvers and NATO aircraft flights were to
blame for rising tensions around Ukraine.
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