Bangladesh will end up like Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka in the midst of an extreme economic crisis. Every day the various misfortunes of the country are being spread in the media. The suffering of the people of a country is by no means desirable. But at first I was surprised to see that, seeing the disaster in Sri Lanka, there was joy among a certain group of the country. But why? You do not have to go far to find the answer to this question. Discussions about Sri Lanka have started between a class of civil and pundits with great tension. The incident in Sri Lanka seems to have brought some hope in hopeless BNP. ‘Bangladesh is moving in the direction of Sri Lanka.’ Every now and then we are witnessing the extreme consequences of debt. Sri Lanka is an example of what an unnecessary mega project brings to the country. They have warned Bangladesh with such examples. Some chuckles, saying that the situation in Bangladesh may be similar to that in Sri Lanka. After the incident in Sri Lanka, some people have assumed that the situation in Bangladesh is going to be like this soon. I don't see any panic but wild joy among those who are making such comments. They can’t sleep, dreaming that the Bangladesh Government will be in danger. The Awami League government is in power for more than 13 years now and during this long period of time, many have predicted the fall of the government after any important event outside. There was a Congress government in India, when elections were held in Bangladesh in 2014. Elections were held in India immediately after the elections in Bangladesh. Congress lost that election and Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister. A right-wing party like the BJP seized power in secular India. At that time, I saw excitement and distribution of sweets in Bangladesh. I tried to find out why some people celebrate the victory of BJP in Bangladesh? Are they BJP supporters? After a little digging, I found out that the reason is entirely different. The Awami League has historically been close to the Congress. But now congress has said goodbye. That is why the Awami League government will leave Bangladesh. The Modi government will bring about a change of power in Bangladesh. What a thought, what a dream! Soon the money spent for distributing sweets went to waste. Those who marched with joy thinking that it was only a matter of time before the fall of the Awami League government, suddenly sighed in despair. Soon the relationship of Awami League with BJP became deeper. In this way, some people are waiting all the time for some foreigner to come and destroy the Awami League. For some things to happen abroad that will affect Awami League. Crisis in Pakistan gave them hope that something similar to this will happen in Bangladesh. The United States did not invite Bangladesh to the Democracy Conference. Seven law enforcement officers were banned. And that it. The trumpets of the fall of the Awami League government started blowing in the country and abroad. Details of when and how the government will fall were also published. In the last 13 years, some people have gone crazy thinking about when and how this government will leave. Sri Lanka seems to have given life to those people.

Bangladesh after Sri Lanka- such rumors can be heard now. Many people are boasting of self-satisfaction with such words. Is that so? Sri Lanka is a beautiful country. Sri Lanka gained independence in 1948. Then came the long 26-year civil war. The country came out of the civil war and focused on development. Sri Lanka quickly became the best in Southeast Asia in all indices. As a country of almost 100% educated, it earned the respect of all. The country with full of natural diversity started earning good income from tourism sector. Since 2006, Sri Lanka has been making rapid progress in various fields. Per capita income rose from 1,436 to 3,819. Which was the highest in South Asia. In 2019, Sri Lanka became an upper middle income country. Attempts were made to match the development story of Bangladesh with the development story of Sri Lanka. In 2008, Bangladesh also began to change. Per capita income has increased. Bangladesh is doing impossibly well in all indicators of the economy. Bangladesh has also taken up many mega projects like Sri Lanka. Like Sri Lanka, it has borrowed a lot to implement mega projects. In 2015, Bangladesh's foreign debt was a little less than Tk 5000 crore. In 2022, it has increased to around Tk 1 lakh crore (97,740). This is the only similarity between the rise of the two countries. But the development story of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka is not the same. Rather completely retrograde. The whole development of Sri Lanka was unplanned. The needs of the people were not taken into consideration. Many such development projects were undertaken which were unnecessary. Such as the deep seaport of Hambantota. There was no need to build this seaport in Sri Lanka. But this deep seaport was built with a loan of about 31 crore dollars. China provided the loan for the construction of the seaport at an interest rate of 6.3 percent. After building the port with a loan for 15 years at such a high interest rate, it was seen that the income from this seaport is meager. After that, Sri Lanka again got its hands on China for management. This time it takes about 760 million dollars. That doesn't speed up the port either. As a result, Sri Lanka has leased the port to China. In other words, the people were unnecessarily burdened with a debt of more than 1 billion dollars. Another such example can be given. ‘Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport’. This is another unnecessary mega project of Sri Lanka, built by Chinese loans. The expense is more than the income at this airport which is almost built in jungle. The airport has already been named the most vacant international airport in the world. These bizarre projects have been taken on high interest loans. The difference between mega projects in Sri Lanka and mega projects in Bangladesh is sky-deep. Every mega project in Bangladesh is in the public interest. These were needed. These projects are directly contributing to our economic development and growth. Padma Bridge, Metrorail, Rooppur Nuclear Power Project, Karnafuli Tunnel are all very important for the advancement of Bangladesh's economy.

Sri Lanka has borrowed unaccounted loan. Sri Lanka's debt is now 119 percent of its’ GDP. In other words, the country has more debt than what it produces in one year. The situation in Bangladesh is much more comfortable than in Sri Lanka. So far, Bangladesh has been restrained and cautious in borrowing. Bangladesh's debt rate is now only 13 percent of GDP. Therefore, Bangladesh is in a much better position than Sri Lanka in terms of taking loans. The Prime Minister rightly said in Parliament on Wednesday, ‘Bangladesh has never defaulted, nor will it ever default.’ There is a failure of political leadership, for the situation in Sri Lanka today. There is widespread corruption. But the main causes of the economic catastrophe are getting shadowed by the cheap blame game of politics. Tourism is one of the major sources of Sri Lanka's foreign exchange earnings. But since 2019, there has been a big crisis in the tourism sector. In 2019, there was a terrorist attack in Colombo. A bomb blast near the northern city of Mosul has killed at least 253 people. As a result, tourists from all over the world turn to Sri Lanka. Before they could recover from this incident, the Covid-19 pandemic appeared. As a result, one of the major sectors of export earnings is hampered. From that point of view, the situation in Bangladesh is completely opposite. Garment and remittances are the two main sources of foreign exchange earnings in Bangladesh. As soon as the Corona epidemic started in the world, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced the incentive package. The garment sector was given priority in this incentive. Many criticized the government for its bias towards the garment sector. But now it has been proved that special incentives for the garment sector were extremely necessary for the country's economy. Even in Corona, our expatriate brothers and sisters continued to send remittances. Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded 44 billion. What it means is, even in Corona, the export income and the flow of foreign currency in Bangladesh has not decreased. That is why the economic situation of Bangladesh is better than many countries of the world in the post-Corona period, not just Sri Lanka.

Another major cause of Sri Lanka's economic collapse is the misguided and cheap strategy of gaining popularity. In order to be popular with the people, political parties and the government often make some tasty decisions. Those decisions are often suicidal. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa made such a suicidal decision. In the hope of cheap popularity, Gotabaya reduced VAT from 15 to 6 percent. The 2 percent nation-building tax was abolished. Pay as You Earn (PAU) was an excellent method of income taxation in Sri Lanka. Rajapaksa also abolished this system to maintain his popularity. As a result, Sri Lanka's internal revenue is declining. The country continues to depend on debt. And now as a result Sri Lanka is bankrupt. Bangladesh's internal revenue is not promising yet. The tax system is still flawed. Yet many people do not pay income tax properly. Even then, there is no political stunt in revenue. There is an urge to increase revenue further. In the budget internal revenue is our main source.

One of the major causes of the Sri Lankan tragedy is the wrong agricultural policy. Last year, the Gotabaya government launched the Organic Agriculture Revolution. The use of chemical fertilizers in agricultural production was banned. As a result, agricultural production is halved. They had to depend on import, which puts a huge strain on the economy of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, our farmers are the hero behind the prosperity and relief of our country. They have continued agricultural production in Corona as well. As a result, there was no food crisis. Bangladesh has subsidized chemical fertilizers so that farmers can buy fertilizers at lower prices. Our agriculture is the strong backbone of our strong economy. Agriculture is the basis of Bangladesh's progress.

Another factor is directly responsible for the crisis in Sri Lanka and that is Russia-Ukraine war. Sri Lanka is one of the countries that has been directly affected by this war. Flight to Russia has been canceled due to war. Tourists from Russia and Ukraine have stopped coming to Sri Lanka. This war was a death knell for Sri Lanka.

Therefore, those who are researching that Bangladesh will end up like Sri Lanka will soon be disappointed. Bangladesh will never end up like Sri Lanka. But Sri Lanka is a great lesson for developing countries. The sooner this lesson is taken, the better. Such is India. Following the situation in Sri Lanka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held a meeting with top bureaucrats. At that meeting, the bureaucrats warned Modi. They said, "Don't make extra promises to win the election." They feared that the situation in India could soon be similar to that in Sri Lanka due to extra promises. After the ECNEC meeting on Tuesday, Bangladesh's planning minister said, "Don't match Bangladesh with Sri Lanka." The planning minister was right in this case. Even after that, we have to be alert and cautious about some things after the incident in Sri Lanka. If a project is not completed on time, then that project becomes a burden in many cases. In Sri Lanka, most of the projects were not completed on time. The duration of the project has been extended. As a result, loan interest has increased. The process of repaying the loan has already started before the completion of the project. This is also happening in many cases in Bangladesh. Repeated increase in project cost is a major obstacle in the development of Bangladesh. The Prime Minister herself has expressed her displeasure over this more than once. Corruption is rampant with the increase in project costs. In order to make the development of Bangladesh sustainable, we have to get out of the culture of repeatedly increasing project costs. Corruption must be stopped in mega projects. During the implementation of the project, cost overruns and corruption also become a burden on the people. The biggest thing is that while focusing on mega projects, big developments, the small facilities of the citizens should not be neglected. That should be taken care of.

Let’s talk about Ramadan. In a country where there is so much development, why not have a gas stove burning in the house from the first day of Ramadan? Why people have to wait for hours at CNG stations? Development seems meaningless to people who are frustrated by rising commodity prices. Per capita income for people who are lost in the market are just some unnecessary calculations of numerology. Metrorail is a joke for people who are stuck in traffic. Therefore, it is a challenge of development to ensure that human emotions do not turn into anger. Big achievements should not be tarnished by small deviations. The country moves forward only when development and people meet at one point. When development and people are adversaries, people think development is adversary. So not only mega projects, but also the small comfort, security, happiness of the people should be looked after. Otherwise, people's love will not be achieved even after great development. The development of a state is nothing but the laughter and happiness of the people. We must not forget people in mega projects. The root cause of Sri Lanka's development tragedy is isolation with people. Only a government isolated from the people wants to sort out its own sugarcane in such unplanned and unnecessary development. This results in defeat. Bangladesh is fortunate that we have one Sheikh Hasina. Who is connected to the people at every moment. Who can read the language of people's minds. She devoted herself to the welfare of the people. So Bangladesh will never be Sri Lanka. Bangladesh will not fail.