প্রকাশ: 30/11/2021
WASHINGTON: Just as it was recovering from the body blow of
the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has taken yet another hit from the
Omicron variant of the virus, which has led to a raft of new travel
restrictions.
First reported to the World Health Organization in South
Africa less than a week ago, the new strain has rapidly spread everywhere from
Africa to the Pacific, and from Europe to Canada, causing dozens of countries
to announce travel restrictions.
The severity of the economic impact will depend on how
dangerous the variant proves to be, and how well existing vaccinations stand up
to it.
That has meant that even with the most favorable scenarios
in mind, economists are already revising their 2022 forecasts downwards.
The International Monetary Fund, which expects growth of 4.9
percent for the next year, has been insisting for months that the coronavirus
and its variants remain the main threat.
The economic impact could be "modest," in the
order of 0.25 percentage points on global growth in 2022 if Omicron causes
"relatively mild symptoms" and the vaccines are
"effective", said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.
In the worst-case scenario, in which Omicron proves
extremely dangerous and large swaths of the world are in lockdown again, 2022
growth could fall to around 2.3 percent, as compared to the 4.5 percent
expected by Oxford Economics before the variant emerged.
And in such a scenario it is not certain that governments,
which have stumped up trillions of dollars in aid since the start of the
pandemic, would be willing to put in place further fiscal stimulus packages,
especially if vaccines are available, Daco said.
Those aspects "are going to be really key to how it
affects the global economy and people's behavior," said Erik Lundh, an
economist at The Conference Board.
SELF-ISOLATION
Beyond government measures to contain the new strain, fear
of infection could lead people to limit their own travel and economic
activities, such as going to restaurants and reducing consumption, which will
in turn impact growth, Lundh said.
Another risk is the exacerbation of the global supply chain
crunch. Lundh pointed out that "a lot of air cargo is stored basically in
the belly of passenger planes ... It's not just all sorts of FedEx
planes".
"So if there are cancellations, if there's a lapse in
demand for commercial flights for passengers, it does run the risk of limiting
the route of trade," which could, in turn, worsen inflationary pressures as
goods become more scarce.
In addition, a wave of Omicron infections "could cause
some workers to temporarily exit the workforce, and deter others from
returning, making current labor shortages worse," said Neil Shearing,
chief economist at Capital Economics in a note.
Omicron has sparked more anxiety than any other variant
since the emergence of Delta, itself already much more contagious than previous
strains.
US President Joe Biden, however, said on Monday (Nov 29)
that there was "not a cause for panic," even if the United States has
closed its borders to travelers from the southern African region where the
variant was first detected.
As for vaccine manufacturers, AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech,
Moderna, and Novavax have expressed confidence in their ability to combat the
variant.
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