Bangladesh goes to the polls in January 2024. The elections are crucial for not only the erstwhile East Pakistan, but India as well. It is important that the secular forces remain in power and not pave way to the barrack politics backed by radical Islam. Such a prognosis makes sense when the geopolitics of the region is taken into account. The return of the anti-liberationist forces of 1971 would sound the death knell to Bengali nationalism that had characterised the triumph of culture over religion.

The Indian stand has always been to support the secular forces in Bangladesh. After all, India ably aided the liberation of Bangladesh. It must also be said that the secular half of Bangladesh is pro-India and it stands to reason that Sheikh Hasina—who leads the secular constituency—would be supported by India.

Furthermore, the return of the anti-liberationists would be detrimental to India’s security, especially in the North East. Memories of Indian insurgent groups such as the United Liberation Force of Asom and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland billeting themselves in Bangladesh and hitting out at Indian interest with impunity are still fresh. Bu the manner in which Hasina handed over almost the entire leadership of the belligerent groupings when she came to power merited appreciation. While it is true that certain Islamist outfits have also entered Assam and thereabouts in recent times, the fact of the matter is the continuance of Hasina is vital for India. Under the circumstances, New Delhi has to ascertain Hasina’s return.

On the other hand, observers of South Asian geopolitics have commented about the manner in which the US is showing interest in the upcoming Bangladesh elections. Congressmen from the US have visited Dhaka and there was a visitation by the US state office’s coordinator on global anti-corruption. It has also been reported that the director of the US Indo-Pacific Command will be visiting Bangladesh in August.

Although there has always been interest in Bangladesh by the US even before its inception in 1971, the concentration of foci of the present calls for analysis. This is especially so as there is speculation that the US is intending a “regime change” that would suit its geopolitics in the region. As a matter of fact, Bangladesh Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina has herself voiced concern stating that “Washington is working to bring an undemocratic party to power in Bangladesh in the upcoming election”.

The history that pertains to US-Bangladesh relationship, especially after the latter’s liberation is mired in high-grade subterfuge. Indeed, one has to only peruse the celebrated book “The Blood Telegram” by Gary J Bass in order to catch the manner in which the US turned a blind eye to the conspiracy that led to the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Bass has documented the manner in which Archer Blood, the US Consul General in the early 1970s, sought to cable Washington about the genocide that was being committed in the “East” by Pakistan. Bass also writes about how the 1975 putsch and the massacre of the Bangabandhu’s family was shelved by the Nixon-Kissinger duo.

It is no longer a matter of debate that the US openly supported Pakistan in 1971. The renewed US interest in the erstwhile East Pakistan clearly showcases that the US wants the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (perhaps backed by Islamist radical elements) to win. This is “global policing” at its worst.

But it is also true that there are two Bangladeshs. A pre-1971 grouping continues to be loyal to the founding principles of Bangladesh. However, there has been an emergence of a new formation which is largely from the post 1971 era. This assemblage identifies itself with Pakistan and even the global Salafi movement that is attempting to storm troop across the world. But Sheikh Hasina’s dispensation acted swiftly against the anti-liberationists and executed quite a few of them.

However, recent events have witnessed a somewhat changed Bangladesh with not only a section of its population once again raising its ugly head by way of attempting to identify itself with Pakistan and the global salafi movement that the world has been witnessing, but with even a section within the Awami League seeking to tilt the balance in favour of anti-India powers.

It is in this context that J N Dixit’s prophetic words about maintaining “a certain amount of distance from India” by balancing Bangladesh’s polity by reaching out to anti-India forces such as China and Pakistan might be viewed.

It must be understood that there is no political opposition to Sheikh Hasina inside the Jatiya Sangsad with the main opposition political party Bangladesh Nationalist Party having only seven seats as opposed to the overwhelming 302 that the Awami League has. While the huge majority that her party has in the parliament has made Sheikh Hasina the “unquestioned leader” in the mould of her father, Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rahman who was assassinated on 15 August 1975, there is apprehension that all may not turn out to be well post January 2024 and the next Bangladesh polls.

It must also be understood that Hasina may be under pressure—as aforesaid—from “Closet Chinese” within the Awami League. Empowering her and the leadership that would take over the reins after her exit should be uppermost in the minds of security managers in New Delhi. India cannot afford the construction of a Chinese “string of pearls” around her neck nor a 1975-like scenario when it lost all ground to anti-liberationist forces that Indian soldiers had fought for and alongside the Mukti Bahini.

In any event, analyses has it that the January 2024 elections would primarily be contested on the plank of (a) development (b) health and (c) Sheikh Hasina’s ability to reach out to secular Bangladesh including the Hindu, Christian and Buddhist populations and assure them that the Awami League would protect their interest. The minorities of Bangladesh have never wavered from their loyalty to Hasina.

Proximity to India, on the other hand, has not gone down well with Pro-Pakistan elements, and there is apprehension that the Inter Services Intelligence of Pakistan would not only be funding such a constituency, but actually help rally political parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Hifazat Andolan Bangladesh to fight Sheikh Hasina as one.

Not long ago the International Republic Institute published a study that showcased Bangladesh’s economic, political and societal dynamics. The research underscored the fact that although the Bangladesh citizenry has been unenthusiastic about the state of the economy and elections, the Awami League government’s policies on development have shored up considerable support for Sheikh Hasina. Health continues to be an important plank where observers feel that more needs to be done, especially as disease such as Dengue needs to be battled with greater resolve.

The security managers in New Delhi—it is certain—have made a careful study of the politics of Bangladesh and the manner in which extra-regional power play may affect the poll outcome. However, confidence must not pave way to complacence. India aided the formation of Bangladesh in 1971. It was a decisive victory and Pakistan (and even the US which had sought to help Pakistan) was made to eat humble pie by a determined India. But it has also to be remembered that five years later—in 1975—both secular Bangladesh and India lost ground that they had achieved.

Bangladesh goes to polls five months from now. It is important that no stone is left unturned to ensure that Sheikh Hasina continues to be in the seat of power. Inability to do so would only be at India’s peril.

Writer: Jaideep Saikia

(The writer is a conflict theorist and bestselling author. The views expressed are his own. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)

From May 17, 1981, to May 17, 2023, in the span of these 42 years, Bangladesh has seen a singular journey led by Philosophical Statesperson Sheikh Hasina. Throughout these 42 years, Bangladeshi politics, economy, and social development have revolved around one figure, Sheikh Hasina. The main protagonist of Bangladesh's aspirations and struggles in these 42 years has been the Philosophical Statesperson Sheikh Hasina. And those who opposed independence and were the defeated forces of '71 and '75, have emerged as new villains in the history of these 42 years. The Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, had a specific goal in liberating Bangladesh. He aspired for a hunger-free, poverty-free, and non-communal progressive Bangladesh. We call it the Sonar Bangla in one word. On March 7th, the Father of the Nation spoke about two things. One was the struggle for independence, and the other was the struggle for liberation. Through the victory on December 16, 1971, we achieved our independence. We obtained the territory of Bangladesh. We earned the flag soaked in blood. And from January 10, 1972, began the struggle for liberation in Bangladesh. Bangabandhu had several short-term, medium-term, and long-term plans towards the reconstruction of Sonar Bangla. But on August 15, 1975, the Father of the Nation was brutally assassinated with his family. It was not just one President or the Father of the Nation who was killed, but rather our dream was assassinated. Bangladesh was essentially murdered. And that's why I consider May 17, 1981, as the declaration of the second liberation war of Bangladesh. Bangladesh had transformed into a dependent, subordinate, and despair-ridden failed state since 1975. Until the beginning of 1996, Bangladesh was established as a failed state, and those in power tried various means to establish it. And visionary stateswoman Sheikh Hasina, since returning to the country on May 17, 1981, initiated the struggle that became known as the Restoration of Sonar Bangla. It was a struggle to establish the consciousness of the Liberation War, the struggle to establish human rights. And the path to this struggle was not easy. She had to be fight in every moment and at every step.

In these 42 years, everything Bangladesh has achieved, its accomplishments, its character, everything is a testament to the philosophical statesperson Sheikh Hasina. She has taken Bangladesh to a place in these 42 years where Bangladesh signifies Sheikh Hasina. Without Sheikh Hasina, it is unimaginable to think of Bangladesh now. And here lies the rationality, the significance of Sheikh Hasina's initiative. In 1981, when she came to Bangladesh, what was Bangladesh like? There was curfew at night, thousands of people were in jail, people were being killed without trial. Basic human rights of people were absent. The Constitution was being shredded and distorted. Extrajudicial killings were rampant. And it was for this reason that Sheikh Hasina, the philosophical statesperson, upon returning to her homeland, initiated the struggle for the rights of the people. In the journey of that struggle, she called for the downfall of autocracy. Under her leadership, the main movement for democracy in Bangladesh took shape. It was through this movement that we bid farewell to autocracy. However, even after a democratically elected government took power, attempts were made to undermine the people's right to vote in 1991. Once again, the black mark fell upon the fundamental human rights of the people. It was at this time that the visionary statesperson Sheikh Hasina initiated a new movement. In 1996, she brought the Bangladesh Awami League, the leading party in the Liberation War, to power after 21 years. From there began the transformation of Bangladesh, spearheaded by Sheikh Hasina. The initiatives taken by Sheikh Hasina were not limited to just infrastructure or governance responsibilities. If we analyze her tenure from 1996 to 2001, we will see that through thousands of initiatives like My House, My Farm, Ashrayan, community clinics, elderly allowances, widow allowances, and many more, she has ensured the establishment of an equal right in terms of development just as he sang the song of liberating discrimination. Most importantly, she has aimed to establish the empowerment of the people.

The Sheikh Hasina Initiative is not just for community clinics. The Sheikh Hasina Initiative is for Bangladesh. And by approving the Community Clinic as the Sheikh Hasina Initiative, the United Nations has clarified a matter: that she is an unparalleled leader, a global leader. There is no equivalent leader in the world at this moment. No head of government has been recognized by the United Nations in this way. The United Nations had received two proposals from Sheikh Hasina. The first was in 2012, where she was unanimously accepted for her vision of peace and empowerment of the people. And in 2023, the Community Clinic was accepted as part of the Sheikh Hasina Initiative. We can easily assume how much intellectual, visionary, and wise a statesman should be for her vision to be embraced at a global forum. Therefore, on May 17, the day of the return of our homeland's leader Sheikh Hasina, our main responsibility will be to awaken, manage, and implement the Sheikh Hasina Initiative, starting from the grassroots to the highest echelons, to realize the Sheikh Hasina Initiative in its true sense. Only then can we see a truly developed Bangladesh, the Bangladesh envisioned by the Father of the Nation and the humble philosopher-statesman Sheikh Hasina.

On the 15th of August, 1975, the nation was directionless in the aftermath of the tragic event. In this infernal incident, people were left bewildered. There was no courage to protest or resist. Many prominent leaders of the party were duty-bound but misguided. The house at Dhanmondi 32 were silent as graves. The entire nation was then engulfed in darkness. Military boots trampled over democracy. The constitution and people's fundamental rights were displaced by exile. Even the mention of Bangabandhu's name was prohibited. At that time, neither the contemporary radio nor television dared to utter Bangabandhu's name. The country was led astray.

The Bangladesh that was born in 1971 was lost by 1975. Throughout the country, there was only despair and disbelief. Six years after being in exile, the leader Sheikh Hasina returned to her homeland Bangladesh on May 17, 1981, without fear or hesitation, leaving behind many risks and keeping her family members abroad.

When she returned to the country, an unprecedented scene unfolded. I still vividly remember how people were ecstatic and elated upon seeing her. Their eyes were filled with joy. She came as a beacon of hope, bringing with her the flicker of light. She emerged as the symbol of everyone's hopes and aspirations, the epitome of trustworthiness. She stood as the address of credibility when the corridors of power were plagued with mistrust. The path of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was not easy upon coming to power in the country. It wasn't smooth, nor was it without challenges. However, she, disregarding all obstacles and adversities, established Bangladesh as a progressive and self-reliant nation through her intelligence, skill, dedication, integrity, competence, wisdom, creativity, and visionary leadership in the broad democratic perspective. The people regain all their rights. By the boundless grace of Allah, we have found a leader in Sheikh Hasina. Just as Bangabandhu created Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina has transformed it. As long as Bangladesh remains in the hands of Sheikh Hasina, the country will not lose its way. 

In 1781, amidst the treacherous betrayal by Mir Jafar, one of the most detested generals in history, Bengal bid farewell to Nawab Siraj-ud-Daulah, marking the onset of a 200-year-long colonial subjugation. Though India gained independence in 1947, Bengalis and Bangladeshis did not taste freedom. Then Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the father of the nation, emerged as a hero and beacon of hope for all the Bengalis. From 1971 to the '75, the crimson flag of independence soared high, igniting the hearts of Bengalis with hope. Yet, the modern-day Mir Jafars, by assassinating the father of the nation, clouded the consciousness of independence. Fortunately, Bangabandhu's privileged daughters Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana survived because they were abroad. Despite not committing any injustice, they were obstructed from returning to Bangladesh. Due to the military ruler and governance, she had to bear the burden of exile. But the helpless, elderly, and oppressed people of the country, can gauge the authentic affection of Sheikh Hasina through the barometer of their hearts.

Hence, Sheikh Hasina's return to the country on May 17, 1981, brought a beacon of hope to the nation's people. The wheel of development of Bengalis' destiny is now moving rapidly in the right direction towards the right destination. On May 17, 1981, the day she set foot on the soil of Bengal, her path was somewhat thorny. Even an ordinary citizen had the right to enter their own home, their father's home. But Sheikh Hasina's right was curtailed. On May 17, 1981, upon setting foot on the soil of her homeland, Sheikh Hasina had two files on her heart's table. One file contained the tragic tale of the loss of her father, along with other family members, on August 15, 1975, and the subsequent trials. The other file depicted the realization of Bangabandhu's dream—the development of a golden Bengal and the progress of the Bengali nation. If Sheikh Hasina hadn't returned to the country on May 17, 1981, the destiny of the Bengali nation would never have seen the light; it would have lingered in perpetual darkness. That's why the people of Bengal hold onto a slogan: “Sheikh Hasina, the home of 18 crore people”

Today, we are talking about May 17th, the day when the honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned to her homeland. Again, last year on this day, the brain child of Sheikh Hasina, the Community Clinic was recognized by the United Nations as 'The Sheikh Hasina Initiative'. Today, we are talking about Digital Bangladesh, we are talking about the developed Bangladesh, we are talking about the smart Bangladesh that we dream of, the dream of an advanced Bangladesh, all of these are the Sheikh Hasina initiative.

We want to remember the day she returned to the country, a day of eager anticipation for all Bengalis. People welcomed Bangabandhu's daughter without any reservations on that day. However, on that day, she couldn't enter her house at 32 Dhanmondi. She wanted to observe Milad, wanted to enter her house, but she couldn't. Despite facing so much injustice and obstacles, today she has not only become the leader of Bangladesh but has also transformed into a global leader. Today, the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina cannot be sidelined by the global community. Even if some fail to recognize the importance of a Prime Minister in Bangladesh, they cannot ignore Sheikh Hasina. Because she is Sheikh Hasina, she is Bangabandhu's daughter. The development of Bangladesh under her leadership, the dreams she holds, is a wonder to all. Today, even Pakistanis say, "Let us make Bangladesh."

After coming to power in 1996, Sheikh Hasina established community clinics to deliver health services to the people's doorsteps. An initiative like the Community Clinic was never thought of. It was completely Sheikh Hasina's idea. But with the change of government, the BNP-Jamaat alliance came to power and closed the community clinic. With the closure of community clinics, the rural people was deprived of primary healthcare. Upon returning to power, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina restarted these clinics. The United Nations has taken it as a model and has endorsed it as 'The Sheikh Hasina Initiative'. Today, it is understood how much of an innovation it actually was. Sheikh Hasina's initiative is now desired to be followed by other countries. 

Community clinics serve as an indispensable, unique, and transformative model for delivering healthcare services, especially to underserved rural communities. They represent an exceptional initiative in providing healthcare services to children, maternal health, and adolescents. The community clinic model has begun to be emulated in various countries worldwide, particularly in reducing neonatal and maternal mortality rates. On May 17 last year, community clinics received recognition as "The Sheikh Hasina Initiative" by the United Nations.

The "Community Clinic" stands as a beacon of hope for the masses aspiring for primary healthcare services. In a short span, the community clinic has transformed into a vital institution for deprived individuals. The coalition government of BNP-Jamaat closed down community clinics upon assuming power. In 2009, with massive public support, the Philosophical Statesperson Sheikh Hasina formed the government again. To ensure no future setbacks for community clinics, Sheikh Hasina has involved the people with this institution. Currently, the 'lighthouse' of health services is being built through partnership. where the people provide the land, and the government builds the infrastructure. The entire operation of the community clinic is being managed digitally. The Prime Minister's initiative means a smart initiative. The innovation of Sheikh Hasina translates to people-centric programs. Community clinics are reshaping rural demographics. In building a Smart Bangladesh, community clinics play a crucial role.