WASHINGTON: Just as it was recovering from the body blow of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has taken yet another hit from the Omicron variant of the virus, which has led to a raft of new travel restrictions.

First reported to the World Health Organization in South Africa less than a week ago, the new strain has rapidly spread everywhere from Africa to the Pacific, and from Europe to Canada, causing dozens of countries to announce travel restrictions.

The severity of the economic impact will depend on how dangerous the variant proves to be, and how well existing vaccinations stand up to it.

That has meant that even with the most favorable scenarios in mind, economists are already revising their 2022 forecasts downwards.

The International Monetary Fund, which expects growth of 4.9 percent for the next year, has been insisting for months that the coronavirus and its variants remain the main threat.

The economic impact could be "modest," in the order of 0.25 percentage points on global growth in 2022 if Omicron causes "relatively mild symptoms" and the vaccines are "effective", said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

In the worst-case scenario, in which Omicron proves extremely dangerous and large swaths of the world are in lockdown again, 2022 growth could fall to around 2.3 percent, as compared to the 4.5 percent expected by Oxford Economics before the variant emerged.

And in such a scenario it is not certain that governments, which have stumped up trillions of dollars in aid since the start of the pandemic, would be willing to put in place further fiscal stimulus packages, especially if vaccines are available, Daco said.

Those aspects "are going to be really key to how it affects the global economy and people's behavior," said Erik Lundh, an economist at The Conference Board.

SELF-ISOLATION

Beyond government measures to contain the new strain, fear of infection could lead people to limit their own travel and economic activities, such as going to restaurants and reducing consumption, which will in turn impact growth, Lundh said.

Another risk is the exacerbation of the global supply chain crunch. Lundh pointed out that "a lot of air cargo is stored basically in the belly of passenger planes ... It's not just all sorts of FedEx planes".

"So if there are cancellations, if there's a lapse in demand for commercial flights for passengers, it does run the risk of limiting the route of trade," which could, in turn, worsen inflationary pressures as goods become more scarce.

In addition, a wave of Omicron infections "could cause some workers to temporarily exit the workforce, and deter others from returning, making current labor shortages worse," said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics in a note.

Omicron has sparked more anxiety than any other variant since the emergence of Delta, itself already much more contagious than previous strains.

US President Joe Biden, however, said on Monday (Nov 29) that there was "not a cause for panic," even if the United States has closed its borders to travelers from the southern African region where the variant was first detected.

As for vaccine manufacturers, AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Novavax have expressed confidence in their ability to combat the variant.

Pakistan, the South Asian nation with a population of over 220 million people, is facing a severe financial crisis that has put the country on the brink of bankruptcy. The country's economy has been struggling for several years, with a range of factors contributing to the crisis. Here are some of the reasons why Pakistan is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Current Account Deficit

Pakistan's current account deficit has been widening rapidly in recent years, meaning the country is importing more goods and services than it is exporting. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the current account deficit for the fiscal year 2020-21 was $1.85 billion, up from $614 million in the previous year. This deficit puts pressure on Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves and makes it difficult for the country to repay its external debt obligations.

Foreign Debt

Pakistan's external debt has been increasing at an alarming rate, with the total external debt reaching $116.3 billion in June 2021, up from $73.4 billion in June 2016. The country's external debt has grown by more than 58% in just five years, putting immense pressure on the country's finances. Pakistan's external debt is projected to grow to $134.2 billion by June 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Trade Deficit

Pakistan's trade deficit has also been widening, with the country importing more goods than it exports. The trade deficit for the fiscal year 2020-21 was $27.4 billion, up from $23.1 billion in the previous year. The country's exports have been declining in recent years, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the situation.

Corruption and Mismanagement

Corruption and mismanagement have also contributed to Pakistan's financial crisis. According to the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, Pakistan ranks 124 out of 180 countries, indicating widespread corruption in the country. The mismanagement of state-owned enterprises, such as Pakistan International Airlines and Pakistan Steel Mills, has also been a major issue, with these entities running huge losses and requiring government bailouts.

Energy Crisis

Pakistan's energy crisis has also contributed to the country's financial woes. The country has been facing severe power shortages for many years, with frequent blackouts and load shedding. The energy crisis has impacted businesses and industries, leading to a decline in economic growth and investment.

COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated Pakistan's financial crisis. The country has been hit hard by the pandemic, with the healthcare system struggling to cope with the surge in cases. The pandemic has also impacted the country's economy, with many businesses shutting down and unemployment rising.

IMF Bailouts

Pakistan has turned to the IMF for financial assistance multiple times in the past, with the country currently on its 22nd IMF bailout program. The IMF has provided Pakistan with loans to stabilize its economy and reduce its external debt, but the country has struggled to implement the required economic reforms, leading to delays in disbursement of funds.

In conclusion, Pakistan is facing a severe financial crisis that has put the country on the brink of bankruptcy. The country's current account deficit, external debt, trade deficit, corruption, mismanagement, energy crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic have all contributed to the crisis. Pakistan urgently needs to implement economic reforms and address these issues to stabilize its economy and avoid a financial meltdown. The country must also work towards reducing its reliance on external debt and increasing its exports to boost its economy.

President Vladimir Putin has held extensive meetings with the military top brass overseeing Russia's campaign in Ukraine, where Moscow has stepped up bombardments, the Kremlin said Saturday.

"On Friday, the president spent the whole day at the army staff involved in the special military operation in Ukraine," a statement said.

He held a meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and held "separate discussions with commanders" from different defence branches, it said.

"I would like to hear your proposals on our actions in the short- and medium-term," Putin was shown as saying in the meeting by Russia's state television.

Russia launched a barrage of missiles on Friday on multiple cities in Ukraine, plunging them into darkness, cutting water and heat and forcing people to endure sub-zero temperatures.

After a series of embarrassing battlefield defeats, Russia since October has pursued an aerial onslaught against what Moscow says are military-linked facilities.

France and the European Union said the suffering inflicted on freezing civilians constitutes war crimes, with the bloc's foreign policy chief calling the bombings "barbaric".

- BSS/AFP

US Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs (SCA) Afreen Akhter has said the United States sees Bangladesh as a “truly important strategic partner" and looks forward to working over the next 50 years for a stronger relationship.

She said in the last 50 years Bangladesh-US relations have seen incredible progress between the peoples, economies and governments.

The people-to-people ties between the two countries are very deep, she said.

Praising Bangladesh's progress in different sectors, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary said Bangladesh's economy has expanded from largely agriculture society to economic powerhouse over the just few decades.

This is a story to really be proud of that Bangladesh has lifted millions of people out of poverty and the country will achieve the middle-income status within generations, which is truly remarkable, she said while speaking at a Victory Day function in Washington.

Beyond the economic cooperation, Afreen mentioned the close partnership between the two countries in providing COVID-19 vaccines and addressing climate change issue. She thanked the Bangladesh government for hosting some 1,1 million Rohingya from Myanmar.
The Bangladesh Embassy in Washington DC celebrated the 52nd Victory Day of Bangladesh, remembering the valiant freedom fighters who fought and made the supreme sacrifice for the cause of long-aspired independence.

To commemorate the day, the Embassy arranged a daylong program.

The day's first part of the programme began with the hoisting of the national flag ceremonially on the chancery premises in the morning by Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States Muhammad Imran.

Officials and employees of the embassy were present at that time.

Later, the Ambassador along with officials and employees of the embassy placed a wreath at the bust of Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman at the Bangabandhu Corner of the embassy.

The messages issued on the occasion of the Victory Day by President Md. Abdul Hamid, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Foreign Minister Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen, and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md. Shahriar Alam were read out by Deputy Chief of Mission Ferdousi Shahriar, Minister (Commerce) Md. Salim Reza, Counsellor (Public Diplomacy) Arifa Rahman Ruma and Counsellor (Political-I) Mohammad Moniruzzman.

A special prayer was held seeking peace, progress and development of the nation as well as eternal peace of the departed soul of martyrs of the Liberation War and Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was offered.

A discussion was held later.

Ambassador Imran recalled with profound respect the greatest Bengali of all time and the founding Father of Bangladesh Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

He also paid deep homage to three million martyrs for their supreme sacrifices and two 2 lakh women who sacrificed in 1971.

The day’s other program ended with a colourful cultural function.

The artistes of Dhroopodi, a Bangladeshi-American cultural organisation, performed group dances on patriotic songs.

Counsellor Shameema Yasmin Smrite and First Secretary Md Ataur Rahman conducted the day’s programme. The embassy also arranged a photo exhibition on the day.

- UNB

North Korea fired around 130 artillery shells into the sea off its east and west coasts on Monday, South Korea's military said, in the latest apparent military drill near their shared border.

Some of the shells landed in a buffer zone near the sea border in what Seoul said was a violation of a 2018 inter-Korean agreement designed to reduce tensions.

The South Korean military sent several warning communications to the North over the firing, the ministry of defence said in a statement.

North Korea did not immediately report on the artillery fire, but it has been carrying out an increasing number of military activities, including missile launches and drills by warplanes and artillery units.

South Korea and the United States have also stepped up military drills this year, saying they are necessary to deter the nuclear-armed North.

The 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) was the most substantive deal to come from the months of meetings between leader Kim Jong Un and then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

With those talks long stalled, however, recent drills and shows of force along the fortified border between the Koreas have cast doubts on the future of the measures. South Korea has accused the North of repeatedly violating the agreement with artillery drills this year.

This year North Korea resumed testing of its long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time since 2017, and South Korea and the United States say it has made preparations to resume nuclear testing as well.

- Reuters

A Group of Seven (G7) price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into force on Monday as the West tries to limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine, though Russia has said it will not abide by the measure even if it has to cut production.

The G7 nations and Australia on Friday agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil after European Union members overcame resistance from Poland. Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the world had shown weakness by setting the cap at that level while Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday it was a gross interference that contradicted the rules of free trade.

"We are working on mechanisms to prohibit the use of a price cap instrument, regardless of what level is set, because such interference could further destabilise the market," said Novak, the Russian government official in charge of its oil, gas, atomic energy and coal.

"We will sell oil and petroleum products only to those countries that will work with us under market conditions, even if we have to reduce production a little," he said.

The G7 agreement allows Russian oil to be shipped to third-party countries using G7 and EU tankers, insurance companies and credit institutions, only if the cargo is bought at or below the $60 per barrel cap.

Industry players and a US official said in October that Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of the cap, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Russia's wartime revenue.

According to Zelenskiy, the $60 cap would do little to deter Russia from waging war in Ukraine. "You wouldn't call it a serious decision to set such a limit for Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of a terrorist state."

The United States and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine on February 24 and sent billions of dollars in aid to the Ukrainian government.

French President Emmanuel Macron, however, drew criticism from Ukraine and its Baltic allies over the weekend for suggesting the West should consider Russia's need for security guarantees if it agrees to talks to end the war.

Zelenskiy's aide, Mykhailo Podolyak, said the world needed security guarantees from Russia, not the other way around.

PLANNED BLACKOUTS

In Ukraine, Russia has been pounding power infrastructure since early October, causing blackouts and leaving millions without heating as temperatures plummet.

Russia says the assaults do not target civilians and are meant to reduce Ukraine's ability to fight.

Ukraine says the attacks are a war crime.

Zelenskiy, in a video address on Sunday, urged citizens to be patient and strong in resisting the rigours of winter.

"To get through this winter, we must be even more resilient and even more united than ever," he said.

Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said on Telegram that blackouts would be confined from Monday to planned "stabilisation" cutoffs to get the grid working again, but added the situation remained "difficult".

Ukraine's largest power supplier, DTEK, said blackouts were planned for three other regions - Odesa, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk in Ukraine's south and east.

In Kherson, largely without power since Russian forces abandoned the southern city last month, the regional governor said 85% of customers had electricity.

SHELLING ALONG FRONT LINES

On the battlefront, Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces were holding positions along the front line, including near Bakhmut, viewed as Russia's next target in their advance through Donetsk.

Ukraine's military said Russian forces were pressing for improved tactical positions to advance in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. About 16 settlements, including Bakhmut and Avdiivka, were shelled by tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, the General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces added.

Russian forces are on the defensive along the Zaporizhzhia frontline while hitting four settlements in the Donetsk region and six in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine's army added.

Russia's defence ministry said its troops were conducting successful operations in the area of Bakhmut and had pushed back Ukrainian attacks in the Donetsk direction.

Russian-installed officials in the occupied Donetsk said Ukraine fired at least 10 Grad rockets into the city. There was no word on casualties.

In Kryvyi Rih, among the largest cities in southern Ukraine, Russian rockets killed one person and wounded three just after midnight, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Valentyn Reznichenko, said.

"They aimed at an industrial enterprise," Reznichenko said on the Telegram messaging app without giving details.

Reuters could not independently verify battlefield reports.

The head of US intelligence said fighting in Ukraine was running at a "reduced tempo" and that militaries on both sides were looking to refit and resupply to prepare for a counter-offensive after the winter.

- Reuters