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What next? Ukraine's allies divided over Russia endgame

Publish: 09:32 AM, 14 Jun, 2022


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Is it better to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine or to isolate him? Should Kyiv make concessions to end the war, or would that embolden the Kremlin? Are ramped-up sanctions on Russia worth the collateral damage?

These are some of the questions testing the international alliance that swiftly rallied around Ukraine in the days after the Russian invasion but that, three months into the war, is straining, officials and diplomats told Reuters.

As Western governments grapple with spiralling inflation and energy costs, countries including Italy and Hungary have called for a quick ceasefire. That could pave the way for scaled back sanctions and end the blockade of Ukrainian ports that has worsened a food security crisis for the world's poorest.

Yet Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics warn that Russia is not to be trusted and say a ceasefire would enable it to consolidate territorial wins, regroup and launch more attacks down the line.

The Russians have "spread the narrative that this would be an exhausting war, we should sit around the table and seek consensus," a senior Ukrainian official told Reuters.

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin has said he wants Russia "weakened" and President Joe Biden called for Putin to be prosecuted for war crimes. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Kyiv must not be strong-armed into accepting a bad peace deal and that Ukraine "must win". 

Germany and France have remained more ambiguous, vowing to stop Putin from winning rather than to defeat him, while at the same time backing tough new sanctions.

"The question being asked is whether we return to the Cold War or not. That's the difference between Biden, Johnson and us," an ally of French President Emmanuel Macron told Reuters.

Russia launched what it calls a "special operation" in Ukraine in February, saying it was needed to rid the country of dangerous nationalists and degrade Ukraine's military capabilities - aims the West denounced as a baseless pretext.

Moscow has since argued that military support from Washington and allies is dragging out the war and deterring Ukraine from peace talks. In March, the Kremlin demanded Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian, and recognise eastern separatist-held areas as independent states as a condition for peace.

The Ukrainian and French sources, and officials in other countries consulted by Reuters for this story, requested anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive diplomatic and security policies.

Divisions could become more pronounced as sanctions and the war take a toll on the global economy, risking domestic backlashes and playing into Putin's hands.

"It was clear from the start it is going to get more and more difficult over time - the war fatigue is coming," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in an interview with CNN.

"There may be difference between those countries who have much better neighbours than we do, and those who have a different history like us, the Baltic countries, and Poland."

DEALING WITH MISTER PUTIN

Macron has warned any peace should not "humiliate" Russia like it did for Germany in 1918.

He, like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has kept channels of communication with the Kremlin open, triggering consternation in more hawkish countries. Poland's president compared the calls to speaking with Adolf Hitler during World War Two. 

"We'll have to deal with Mister Putin at some point, unless there's a palace coup. And even more so because this war needs to be as short as possible," the Macron ally said.

Scholz said his and Macron's calls with Putin were used to convey firm and clear messages, and has stressed sanctions on Russia would not end unless Putin withdrew troops and agreed to a peace deal acceptable to Kyiv.

However, one of Scholz's team told Reuters that Macron's wording had been "unfortunate." Some French diplomats have also privately expressed reservations about Macron's stance, saying it risked alienating Ukraine and eastern European allies.

While grateful for the West's support, Ukraine has bristled at suggestions that it should concede territory as part of a ceasefire deal and sometimes questioned whether its allies were properly united against Russia.

Macron's warning not to humiliate Russia prompted Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to warn that France was only humiliating itself, and Kyiv's relations with Scholz have been frosty. 

"We don't have a Churchill across the European Union. We do not have any illusions on that," the senior Ukrainian official said, referring to Britain's wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

A French presidency official said "there is no spirit of concession with regard to Putin or Russia in what the president says." France wanted a Ukrainian victory and Ukrainian territories restored, the official said, and dialogue with Putin was "not to compromise but to say things as we see them".

A US administration official said Washington was more vocal in its scepticism about Russia acting in good faith, but denied there was "strategic difference" between allies.

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters that the US working along with allies had "delivered," for Ukraine - with sanctions, weapons transfers and other measures - despite naysayers since before the invasion casting doubt on the unity of the alliance. The goal, the spokesperson said, was to put Ukraine in a strong position to negotiate.

WEAKEN RUSSIA?

Referring to Austin's comments, the first official said Washington had no intention of changing Russia's leadership but wanted to see the country weakened to the point that it couldn't carry out such an attack on Ukraine again.

"Everyone focused on the first part of what Austin said not on the second part. We want to see Russia weakened to the extent that it can't do something like this again," the official said.

One German government source said Austin's aim to weaken Russia was problematic. It was unfortunate that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from Scholz's coalition partner the Greens, had endorsed that aim, the source said, because it complicated the question of when sanctions could ever be lifted, irrespective of whether Ukraine agreed to a peace deal or not.

German government sources also said they were worried that some in the West could be egging on Ukraine to unrealistic military goals, including the recapture of the Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, that could prolong the conflict.

Baerbock has publicly said sanctions would have to remain in place until Russian troops withdrew from Crimea.

Ukraine's ambassador to Germany meanwhile has repeatedly criticised Germany for dragging its feet on sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, though Berlin has robustly defended its record of support. 

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's senior adviser Mykhailo Podolyak signalled Ukraine's frustrations:

"Russia must not win, but we won't give heavy weapons - it may offend Russia. Putin must lose but let's not impose new sanctions. Millions will starve, but we're not ready for military convoys with grain," he tweeted on May 31.

"Rising prices are not the worst that awaits a democratic world with such a policy," he said.

- Reuters


Ukraine   Russia  


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World Inside

US, UK launch new wave of strikes against Yemen's Huthis

Publish: 10:17 AM, 25 Feb, 2024


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American and British forces carried out a fresh wave of strikes Saturday against 18 Huthi targets in Yemen, following weeks of unrelenting attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Iran-backed rebels.

The strikes "specifically targeted 18 Huthi targets across eight locations in Yemen" including weapons storage facilities, attack drones, air defense systems, radars, and a helicopter, a joint statement said.

It was co-signed by Australia, Bahrain, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands and New Zealand, who gave unspecified "support" to the new round of strikes, the second this month and fourth since the rebels began their attacks on ships in the region.

"The Huthis' now more than 45 attacks on commercial and naval vessels since mid-November constitute a threat to the global economy, as well as regional security and stability, and demand an international response," the statement said.

Huthi-run Al-Masirah television reported "a series of raids on the capital Sanaa," while AFP correspondents in the rebel-controlled city in western Yemen said they heard several loud bangs.

"The United States will not hesitate to take action, as needed, to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world's most critical waterways," Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in a separate statement after the strikes.


"We will continue to make clear to the Huthis that they will bear the consequences if they do not stop their illegal attacks, which harm Middle Eastern economies, cause environmental damage, and disrupt the delivery of humanitarian aid to Yemen and other countries."

Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree was defiant, vowing in a social media statement that the rebels would "confront the American-British escalation with more qualitative military operations against all hostile targets in the Red and Arab Seas."

The UK Ministry of Defence said four Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4s targeted "several very long-range drones, used by the Houthis for both reconnaissance and attack missions," on Saturday, at a site north-east of Sanaa.

Saturday's operation comes after several merchant vessels were struck this week in the region, including the fertilizer-filled Rubymar, whose crew had to abandon ship after it was hit Sunday and began taking on water.

Apart from the joint operations with Britain, the United States has also carried out unilateral strikes against Huthi positions and weaponry in Yemen, and downed dozens of missiles and drones in the Red Sea.

- Anti-ship missile downed -

Earlier on Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that an American Navy ship had shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile "launched into the Gulf of Aden from Iranian-backed Huthi controlled areas of Yemen."

The missile "was likely targeting MV Torm Thor, a US-Flagged, owned, and operated chemical/oil tanker," CENTCOM said on X, formerly Twitter.

US forces on Friday also shot down three attack drones near commercial ships in the Red Sea and destroyed seven anti-ship cruise missiles on land, CENTCOM said.

The Huthis say they are targeting Israel-linked vessels in support of Palestinians in Gaza, which has been ravaged by the Israel-Hamas war.

Following previous US and UK strikes, the Huthis declared American and British interests to be legitimate targets as well.

The Huthis will "persist in upholding their religious, moral and humanitarian duties towards the Palestinian people, and their military operations will not stop unless the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted," military spokesman Saree said.

Anger over Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza -- which began after an unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7 -- has grown across the Middle East, stoking violence involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.



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Israel strikes Gaza's Rafah as truce talks under way

Publish: 01:54 PM, 22 Feb, 2024


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Israel launched air strikes Thursday on southern Gaza's Rafah after threatening to send troops into the city, where around 1.4 million Palestinians have sought shelter from around the territory.

Global powers trying to navigate a way to end the Israel-Hamas war have so far come up short, but a US envoy was expected in Israel on Thursday to try to secure a truce deal.

International concern has spiralled over the high civilian death toll and dire humanitarian crisis in the war sparked by Hamas's October 7 attack against Israel.

More than four months of relentless fighting and air strikes have flattened much of the Hamas-run coastal territory, pushing its population of around 2.4 million to the brink of famine, according to the UN.

International concern has in recent weeks centred on Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah, where more than 1.4 million people forced to flee their homes elsewhere in the territory are now living in crowded shelters and makeshift tents.

The last city untouched by Israeli ground troops, Rafah also serves as the main entry point via neighbouring Egypt for desperately needed relief supplies.

Israel has warned it will expand its ground operations into Rafah if Hamas does not free the remaining hostages held in Gaza by next month's start of the Muslim holy month Ramadan.

- 'My daughter' -

The war started when Hamas launched its attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.

Hamas militants also took about 250 hostages -- 130 of whom remain in Gaza, including 30 presumed dead, according to Israel.

Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed at least 29,313 people, mostly women and children, according to the latest count by the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory.

War cabinet member Benny Gantz said Israel's operation in Rafah would begin "after the evacuation of the population", although his government has not offered any details on where civilians would be evacuated to.

In the early hours of Thursday, AFP reporters heard multiple air strikes on Rafah, particularly in the Al-Shaboura neighbourhood.

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said early Thursday that 99 people had been killed around Gaza during the night, most of them women, children and elderly people.

Abdel Rahman Mohamed Jumaa said he lost his family in recent strikes on Rafah.

"I found my wife lying in the street," he told AFP. "Then I saw a man carrying a girl and I ran towards him and.... picked her up, realising she was really my daughter."

He was holding a small shrouded corpse in his arms.

- 'Possibility of progress' -

Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, was expected to arrive in Israel Thursday -- his second stop in the region after Egypt as part of US efforts to advance a hostage deal and broker a truce.

Hamas's chief Ismail Haniyeh was in Cairo for talks as well, according to the group.

Israel's Gantz said there were efforts to "promote a new plan for the return of the hostages".

"We are seeing the first signs that indicate the possibility of progress in this direction."

Matthew Miller, US State Department spokesman, said Washington was hoping for an "agreement that secures a temporary ceasefire where we can get the hostages out and get humanitarian assistance", but declined to give details on ongoing negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted the army will keep fighting until it has destroyed Hamas and freed the remaining hostages.

Israel's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly backed a proposal by Netanyahu to oppose any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.

The vote came days after the Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden's administration and a small group of Arab nations were working out a comprehensive plan for long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

It included a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state, the report said.

Separately, a report by an Israeli group that fights sexual violence said Hamas's October 7 attack also involved systematic sexual assaults on civilians, based on witness testimonies, public and classified information, and interviews.

The report came the same week UN rights experts called for an independent probe into alleged Israeli abuses against Palestinian women and girls -- which Israel rejected as "despicable and unfounded claims".

Israeli officials have repeatedly alleged the militants committed violent sexual assaults during the attack -- something Hamas has denied.

- 'Waiting for death' -

Combat and chaos have stalled sporadic aid deliveries for civilians in Gaza, while in Khan Yunis -- a city just north of Rafah -- medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said an Israeli tank had fired on a house sheltering their employees and families.

Two relatives of MSF staff were killed and six others injured, it said, condemning the strike in the "strongest possible terms".

When contacted by AFP about the incident, the Israeli army said its forces had "fired at a building that was identified as a building where terror activity is occurring", adding that it "regrets" harm to civilians.

In the same town, the Palestinian Red Crescent said another hospital was also hit by "artillery shelling".

Israel has repeatedly said Hamas militants use civilian infrastructure including hospitals as operational bases -- claims that Hamas has denied.


Israel Strikes   Gaza's Rafah  


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World Inside

PM for doing business with India thro Tk, Rupee

Publish: 08:31 AM, 18 Feb, 2024


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Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today stressed the need for expanding business between Bangladesh and India using their own currencies.

"We can do our business through exchanges of Bangladeshi Taka and Indian Rupee. It has already started, but we have to expand it further so that we can increase our businesses," she said while Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar paid a call on the Prime Minister.

The meeting was held at Hotel Bayerischer Hof, the conference venue, here on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024, this morning.

Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud briefed newsmen about the outcome of the meeting upon its completion.

The Foreign Minister said the Bangladesh Premier and Jaishankar attached importance to doing business between the two friendly countries through their own currencies to reduce dependency on other currencies like the US dollar.

He said Bangladesh and India have excellent bilateral relations and it has elevated to another height under the leadership of the prime ministers of the two countries.

"The relations between the countries are getting stronger day by day," he said, adding that the two leaders discussed the issues during the meeting.

Quoting Jaishankar, Hasan said, "Our relations will further be closer in the days ahead." 

Bangladesh Ambassador to Germany Md Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan and PM's Deputy Press Secretary Md. Noorelahi Mina were present during the briefing.

Bangladesh Prime Minister arrived in Munich on February 15 evening on a three-day official visit to join the Munich Security Conference 2024.

Upon completion of the tour, Sheikh Hasina will leave Munich tomorrow night and is scheduled to reach Dhaka on February 19.


(BSS)



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PM calls for stopping Russia-Ukraine war as she talks with Zelenskyy

Publish: 08:27 AM, 18 Feb, 2024


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Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has called upon all concerned to find ways to stop Russia-Ukraine war while holding a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy here.

"Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina always says we are against all kinds of war. Today, she discussed time and again about how the war can be stopped while holding talks with Zelenskyy," said Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud at a news briefing after the meeting.

The meeting between the two leaders was held at Hotel Bayerischer Hof here on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024, this morning.

Hasan also said that they also discussed how the attacks on innocent men and women in Gaza can be stopped.

The Premier reminded all that war can't bring wellbeing for any one.

"Others can be benefitted from the war. But the war cannot bring welfare for the countries  involved in war and their people have to be affected by the war," said Sheikh Hasina.

In this connection, the Prime Minister recollected her memories about the sufferings of  the countrymen and she herself faced during the Great War of Liberation in 1971.

She recalled her inhuman sufferings and the birth of her only son Sajeeb Wazed Joy under the captivity of the Pakistani occupation forces during the War.

"Bangladesh's foreign policy - 'Friendship to all, malice to none’ - prominently came up in the discussion between Prime Minister and Zelenskyy," the foreign minister said.

Replying to a query, Hasan said the friendly relations between Bangladesh and Russia which got foundation during the Liberation war , will not hamper at all.

"Our relationship with Russia is very wonderful. Russia stood beside us during the Liberation War and played a pivotal role in rebuilding Bangladesh after the war," he said.

He said they only discussed how to stop the war.

Bangladesh Ambassador to Germany Md Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan and PM's Deputy Press Secretary Md. Noorelahi Mina were present during the briefing.

Bangladesh Prime Minister arrived in Munich on February 15 evening on a three-day official visit to join the Munich Security Conference 2024.

Upon completion of the tour, Sheikh Hasina will leave Munich tomorrow night and is scheduled to reach Dhaka on February 19.


(BSS)



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World Inside

Imran picks Ayub Khan's grandson as PM

Publish: 08:19 PM, 16 Feb, 2024


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Imran Khan has named Omar Ayub Khan, the grandson of military dictator Ayub Khan, as his pick for Pakistan's prime minister.

Ayub, one of the former prime minister's party leaders, is currently wanted by police on criminal charges. It doesn't stop him from running, though.

However, despite Khan's independents unexpectedly winning the most seats in last week's election, they do not have enough to form a government.
 
Currently, the two main rivals appear on course to take control, after they formed a coalition - Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP).
  
A senior leader of Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party, Asad Qaiser, announced Ayub as his pick for PM after meeting with the former premier in prison.
 
Members of Pakistan's National Assembly will elect the new prime minister and 56-year-old Ayub will face off against the PML-N's Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif's brother.
 
Ayub is on the run from criminal charges over riots sparked by Imran Khan's arrest in May last year. But that does not disqualify him from seeking the PM post.
 
If elected PM, Ayub said his top priority is to free political prisoners. He won last week as an independent backed by PTI.
 
He is the grandson of Mohamed Ayub Khan, a military dictator and Pakistan's president from 1958 to 1969.
  
With the PPP's support, Sharif on Wednesday put forward his brother Shehbaz as the PML-N's PM candidate.
 
The vote for Pakistan's next prime minister will take place after all new members of the National Assembly take their oaths, and the speaker and deputy speaker have been elected.
 
Independent candidates - a majority affiliated with Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) - won 93 of the 265 National Assembly seats that were contested in last Thursday's election. The PML-N won 75 seats while the PPP came third with 54 seats.
 
The PTI argues that its allies should have won even more votes and seats, alleging vote fraud and interference - which electoral officials have denied.
 
Earlier this week, a politician from the Jamaat-e-Islami party gave up his seat because he says the vote was rigged in his favour.
  
"We will not allow our mandate to be stolen," Ayub said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
 
"PTI as a party will work for strengthening democratic institutions in Pakistan so that the country's economy can be put on a path of positive trajectory and we can initiate our reforms programme to benefit the people of Pakistan," he said.
 
Ayub was first elected into the nation's National Assembly in 2002 as a candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, a breakaway party from the PML-N.
 
He joined PML-N in 2012, and then moved again in 2018 to join PTI. He was a minister in Khan's cabinet from 2018 until the ex-PM's ouster in April 2022. He was appointed PTI's secretary-general since 27 May 2003, shortly after Khan's arrest.
 




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