Americans may finally be catching a break from relentlessly
surging prices — if just a slight one — even as inflation is expected to remain
painfully high for months.
Thanks largely to falling gas prices, the government’s
inflation report for July, to be released Wednesday morning, is expected to
show that prices jumped 8.7% from a year earlier — still a sizzling pace but a
slowdown from the 9.1% year-over-year figure in June, which was the highest in
four decades.
The forecast by economists, if it proves correct, would
raise hopes that inflation might have peaked and that the run of punishingly
higher prices is beginning to ease slightly. There have been other hopeful signs,
too, that the pace of inflation may be moderating.
At the same time, an array of other economic developments
are threatening to keep intensifying inflation pressures. The pace of hiring is
robust and average wages are up sharply. And even as gas prices fall, inflation
in services such as health care, rents and restaurant meals is accelerating.
Price changes in services tend to be sticky and don’t ease as quickly as they
do for gas, food or other goods. Those trends suggest that overall inflation
may not drop significantly anytime soon.
President Joe Biden has already pointed to falling gas
prices as a sign that his policies — such as releases of oil from the nation’s
strategic reserve — are helping combat the higher costs that have hammered
household budgets, particularly for lower-income families.
Yet Republicans will push ongoing high inflation as a top
campaign issue in this fall’s elections, with polls showing that high prices
have driven Biden’s approval ratings down sharply.
On Friday, the House is poised to give final congressional
approval to a revived tax-and-climate package pushed by Biden and Democratic
lawmakers. The bill, which among other things aims to ease pharmaceutical
prices by letting the government negotiate Medicare’s drug costs, is expected
to cut the federal budget deficit by $300 billion over a decade.
Yet economists say the measure, which its proponents have
titled the Inflation Reduction Act, will have only a minimal effect on
inflation over the next several years, though it could could slow price
increases a bit more later this decade.
Economists have forecast that Wednesday’s inflation report
will show that consumer prices rose 0.2% from June to July, according to
FactSet. That would mark a steep drop from the 1.3% jump from May to June.
But excluding the volatile food and energy categories,
so-called core inflation likely stayed high. Economists project that core
prices rose 0.5% from in July, still a sharp rise, though down from the 0.7%
jump in June. Such an increase would leave core prices 6.1% higher than a year
ago, up from a 5.9% year-over year increase in June.
If overall inflation did ease in July, it will largely
reflect a 16% plunge in prices at the gas pump from their peak in mid-June,
when gas hit a national average of $5 a gallon. The average price fell to about
$4.20 by the end of July and was just $4.03 by Tuesday. The continuing drop
means that lower gas prices will likely pull inflation down further in August.
Other items may have also helped lower price gains in July:
Food costs, though they likely kept rising, probably did so at a slower pace
than in June. Prices for used cars, clothing and rental cars may have fallen,
too.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed needs
to see a series of declining monthly core inflation readings before it would consider
pausing its interest rate increases. Though the Fed more closely tracks a
different inflation measure, it also monitors the figures in Wednesday’s
report, known as the consumer price index.
The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term rate at its past
four rate-setting meetings, including a three-quarter point hike in both June
and July — the first increases that large since 1994. A blockbuster jobs report
for July that the government issued Friday — with 528,000 jobs added, rising
wages and an unemployment rate that matched a half-century low of 3.5% —
solidified expectations that the Fed will announce yet another
three-quarter-point hike when it next meets in September.
Financial markets are betting that the Fed will raise rates
several more times this year, to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but will ultimately
have to cut rates by next summer because traders expect the higher rates to
cause a recession.
Some trends do point to lower future inflation. The supply
chain snags that have elevated prices for cars, furniture, appliances and other
goods are easing.
The number of ships waiting to be unloaded at the Los
Angeles/Long Beach port has fallen for six straight months, according to Oxford
Economics. Shipping costs have generally leveled off or declined, including for
trucking and rail services, Oxford said, though they remain high.
And a drop in Americans’ expectations for future inflation
may also keep higher prices from becoming entrenched. Such expectations can be
self-fulfilling: If people believe inflation will stay high or worsen, they are
likely to take steps — such as demanding higher pay — that can then send prices
higher in a self-perpetuating cycle. Companies often raise prices to offset
higher their higher labor costs.
But a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
released Monday, showed that Americans now expect lower inflation in the next
few years than they did a month ago. Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at
BMO Wealth Management, said lower inflation expectations may allow the Fed to
react less aggressively to reports, such as last month’s burst of hiring, that
suggest the economy is still strong and that inflation could remain high.
“It’s a modestly good sign,” Ma said of the inflation
expectations data. “It gives them a little bit of room to not take a more
aggressive approach.”
– AP/UNB
Comment
American and British forces carried out a fresh wave of strikes Saturday against 18 Huthi targets in Yemen, following weeks of unrelenting attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Iran-backed rebels.
The strikes "specifically targeted 18 Huthi targets across eight locations in Yemen" including weapons storage facilities, attack drones, air defense systems, radars, and a helicopter, a joint statement said.
It was co-signed by Australia, Bahrain, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands and New Zealand, who gave unspecified "support" to the new round of strikes, the second this month and fourth since the rebels began their attacks on ships in the region.
"The Huthis' now more than 45 attacks on commercial and naval vessels since mid-November constitute a threat to the global economy, as well as regional security and stability, and demand an international response," the statement said.
Huthi-run Al-Masirah television reported "a series of raids on the capital Sanaa," while AFP correspondents in the rebel-controlled city in western Yemen said they heard several loud bangs.
"The United States will not hesitate to take action, as needed, to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world's most critical waterways," Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in a separate statement after the strikes.
"We will continue to make clear to the Huthis that they will bear the consequences if they do not stop their illegal attacks, which harm Middle Eastern economies, cause environmental damage, and disrupt the delivery of humanitarian aid to Yemen and other countries."
Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree was defiant, vowing in a social media statement that the rebels would "confront the American-British escalation with more qualitative military operations against all hostile targets in the Red and Arab Seas."
The UK Ministry of Defence said four Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4s targeted "several very long-range drones, used by the Houthis for both reconnaissance and attack missions," on Saturday, at a site north-east of Sanaa.
Saturday's operation comes after several merchant vessels were struck this week in the region, including the fertilizer-filled Rubymar, whose crew had to abandon ship after it was hit Sunday and began taking on water.
Apart from the joint operations with Britain, the United States has also carried out unilateral strikes against Huthi positions and weaponry in Yemen, and downed dozens of missiles and drones in the Red Sea.
- Anti-ship missile downed -
Earlier on Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that an American Navy ship had shot down an anti-ship ballistic missile "launched into the Gulf of Aden from Iranian-backed Huthi controlled areas of Yemen."
The missile "was likely targeting MV Torm Thor, a US-Flagged, owned, and operated chemical/oil tanker," CENTCOM said on X, formerly Twitter.
US forces on Friday also shot down three attack drones near commercial ships in the Red Sea and destroyed seven anti-ship cruise missiles on land, CENTCOM said.
The Huthis say they are targeting Israel-linked vessels in support of Palestinians in Gaza, which has been ravaged by the Israel-Hamas war.
Following previous US and UK strikes, the Huthis declared American and British interests to be legitimate targets as well.
The Huthis will "persist in upholding their religious, moral and humanitarian duties towards the Palestinian people, and their military operations will not stop unless the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted," military spokesman Saree said.
Anger over Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza -- which began after an unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7 -- has grown across the Middle East, stoking violence involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Comment
Israel launched air strikes Thursday on southern Gaza's Rafah after threatening to send troops into the city, where around 1.4 million Palestinians have sought shelter from around the territory.
Global powers trying to navigate a way to end the Israel-Hamas war have so far come up short, but a US envoy was expected in Israel on Thursday to try to secure a truce deal.
International concern has spiralled over the high civilian death toll and dire humanitarian crisis in the war sparked by Hamas's October 7 attack against Israel.
More than four months of relentless fighting and air strikes have flattened much of the Hamas-run coastal territory, pushing its population of around 2.4 million to the brink of famine, according to the UN.
International concern has in recent weeks centred on Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah, where more than 1.4 million people forced to flee their homes elsewhere in the territory are now living in crowded shelters and makeshift tents.
The last city untouched by Israeli ground troops, Rafah also serves as the main entry point via neighbouring Egypt for desperately needed relief supplies.
Israel has warned it will expand its ground operations into Rafah if Hamas does not free the remaining hostages held in Gaza by next month's start of the Muslim holy month Ramadan.
- 'My daughter' -
The war started when Hamas launched its attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.
Hamas militants also took about 250 hostages -- 130 of whom remain in Gaza, including 30 presumed dead, according to Israel.
Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed at least 29,313 people, mostly women and children, according to the latest count by the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory.
War cabinet member Benny Gantz said Israel's operation in Rafah would begin "after the evacuation of the population", although his government has not offered any details on where civilians would be evacuated to.
In the early hours of Thursday, AFP reporters heard multiple air strikes on Rafah, particularly in the Al-Shaboura neighbourhood.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said early Thursday that 99 people had been killed around Gaza during the night, most of them women, children and elderly people.
Abdel Rahman Mohamed Jumaa said he lost his family in recent strikes on Rafah.
"I found my wife lying in the street," he told AFP. "Then I saw a man carrying a girl and I ran towards him and.... picked her up, realising she was really my daughter."
He was holding a small shrouded corpse in his arms.
- 'Possibility of progress' -
Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, was expected to arrive in Israel Thursday -- his second stop in the region after Egypt as part of US efforts to advance a hostage deal and broker a truce.
Hamas's chief Ismail Haniyeh was in Cairo for talks as well, according to the group.
Israel's Gantz said there were efforts to "promote a new plan for the return of the hostages".
"We are seeing the first signs that indicate the possibility of progress in this direction."
Matthew Miller, US State Department spokesman, said Washington was hoping for an "agreement that secures a temporary ceasefire where we can get the hostages out and get humanitarian assistance", but declined to give details on ongoing negotiations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted the army will keep fighting until it has destroyed Hamas and freed the remaining hostages.
Israel's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly backed a proposal by Netanyahu to oppose any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.
The vote came days after the Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden's administration and a small group of Arab nations were working out a comprehensive plan for long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
It included a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state, the report said.
Separately, a report by an Israeli group that fights sexual violence said Hamas's October 7 attack also involved systematic sexual assaults on civilians, based on witness testimonies, public and classified information, and interviews.
The report came the same week UN rights experts called for an independent probe into alleged Israeli abuses against Palestinian women and girls -- which Israel rejected as "despicable and unfounded claims".
Israeli officials have repeatedly alleged the militants committed violent sexual assaults during the attack -- something Hamas has denied.
- 'Waiting for death' -
Combat and chaos have stalled sporadic aid deliveries for civilians in Gaza, while in Khan Yunis -- a city just north of Rafah -- medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said an Israeli tank had fired on a house sheltering their employees and families.
Two relatives of MSF staff were killed and six others injured, it said, condemning the strike in the "strongest possible terms".
When contacted by AFP about the incident, the Israeli army said its forces had "fired at a building that was identified as a building where terror activity is occurring", adding that it "regrets" harm to civilians.
In the same town, the Palestinian Red Crescent said another hospital was also hit by "artillery shelling".
Israel has repeatedly said Hamas militants use civilian infrastructure including hospitals as operational bases -- claims that Hamas has denied.
Comment
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today stressed the need for expanding business between Bangladesh and India using their own currencies.
"We can do our business through exchanges of Bangladeshi Taka and Indian Rupee. It has already started, but we have to expand it further so that we can increase our businesses," she said while Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar paid a call on the Prime Minister.
The meeting was held at Hotel Bayerischer Hof, the conference venue, here on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024, this morning.
Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud briefed newsmen about the outcome of the meeting upon its completion.
The Foreign Minister said the Bangladesh Premier and Jaishankar attached importance to doing business between the two friendly countries through their own currencies to reduce dependency on other currencies like the US dollar.
He said Bangladesh and India have excellent bilateral relations and it has elevated to another height under the leadership of the prime ministers of the two countries.
"The relations between the countries are getting stronger day by day," he said, adding that the two leaders discussed the issues during the meeting.
Quoting Jaishankar, Hasan said, "Our relations will further be closer in the days ahead."
Bangladesh Ambassador to Germany Md Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan and PM's Deputy Press Secretary Md. Noorelahi Mina were present during the briefing.
Bangladesh Prime Minister arrived in Munich on February 15 evening on a three-day official visit to join the Munich Security Conference 2024.
Upon completion of the tour, Sheikh Hasina will leave Munich tomorrow night and is scheduled to reach Dhaka on February 19.
(BSS)
Comment
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has called upon all concerned to find ways to stop Russia-Ukraine war while holding a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy here.
"Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina always says we are against all kinds of war. Today, she discussed time and again about how the war can be stopped while holding talks with Zelenskyy," said Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud at a news briefing after the meeting.
The meeting between the two leaders was held at Hotel Bayerischer Hof here on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024, this morning.
Hasan also said that they also discussed how the attacks on innocent men and women in Gaza can be stopped.
The Premier reminded all that war can't bring wellbeing for any one.
"Others can be benefitted from the war. But the war cannot bring welfare for the countries involved in war and their people have to be affected by the war," said Sheikh Hasina.
In this connection, the Prime Minister recollected her memories about the sufferings of the countrymen and she herself faced during the Great War of Liberation in 1971.
She recalled her inhuman sufferings and the birth of her only son Sajeeb Wazed Joy under the captivity of the Pakistani occupation forces during the War.
"Bangladesh's foreign policy - 'Friendship to all, malice to none’ - prominently came up in the discussion between Prime Minister and Zelenskyy," the foreign minister said.
Replying to a query, Hasan said the friendly relations between Bangladesh and Russia which got foundation during the Liberation war , will not hamper at all.
"Our relationship with Russia is very wonderful. Russia stood beside us during the Liberation War and played a pivotal role in rebuilding Bangladesh after the war," he said.
He said they only discussed how to stop the war.
Bangladesh Ambassador to Germany Md Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan and PM's Deputy Press Secretary Md. Noorelahi Mina were present during the briefing.
Bangladesh Prime Minister arrived in Munich on February 15 evening on a three-day official visit to join the Munich Security Conference 2024.
Upon completion of the tour, Sheikh Hasina will leave Munich tomorrow night and is scheduled to reach Dhaka on February 19.
(BSS)
Comment
Comment
American and British forces carried out a fresh wave of strikes Saturday against 18 Huthi targets in Yemen, following weeks of unrelenting attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Iran-backed rebels. The strikes "specifically targeted 18 Huthi targets across eight locations in Yemen" including weapons storage facilities, attack drones, air defense systems, radars, and a helicopter, a joint statement said.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today stressed the need for expanding business between Bangladesh and India using their own currencies. "We can do our business through exchanges of Bangladeshi Taka and Indian Rupee. It has already started, but we have to expand it further so that we can increase our businesses," she said while Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar paid a call on the Prime Minister.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has called upon all concerned to find ways to stop Russia-Ukraine war while holding a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy here. "Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina always says we are against all kinds of war. Today, she discussed time and again about how the war can be stopped while holding talks with Zelenskyy," said Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud at a news briefing after the meeting.